Job Displacement in the Age of AI

It's a scary time out there for many of us. New technologies lead to job displacement. And AI is the mother of all new technologies.

"Job displacement" is a nice possibly insidious and politically manipulative way of saying you're going to lose your job, and along with it, your ability to pay your bills, your rent or mortgage, your groceries, your car payments. It's a scary time.

But is this moment any different than any other of the many examples in history of technologies we now take for granted that have improved our lives, made us more autonomous, more connected, healthier, safer and presumably happier?

Maybe.

First, let's take a look at what's gone before.

The Industrial Revolution (18th-19th Century)

Displacement: The advent of mechanized production, such as the steam engine and textile machines like the spinning jenny, led to massive changes in the workforce.
Example: Skilled artisans and weavers, who had previously made textiles by hand, were displaced by machines in factories. Workers in agriculture also faced job losses due to the mechanization of farming, such as the threshing machine.
Effect: Many former artisans moved to urban centers to work in factories, but they often faced harsh working conditions, lower wages, and longer hours.

The Advent of the Automobile (Early 20th Century)

Displacement: The mass production of cars, particularly with Henry Ford’s assembly line, revolutionized transportation and manufacturing.
Example: Horse-drawn carriage drivers, stable workers, and blacksmiths saw their jobs disappear as the automobile industry took over. Similarly, in the automotive industry, traditional skilled car builders were replaced by assembly line workers performing specialized tasks.
Effect: While the automobile industry created millions of new jobs, it also displaced those involved in older industries, particularly in transportation.

Automation in Manufacturing (Mid-20th Century)

Displacement: The introduction of robots and automated systems in manufacturing plants reduced the need for human labor in repetitive tasks.
Example: In industries like automotive manufacturing, robots and machines took over tasks that were previously done by human workers, such as welding, painting, and assembly.
Effect: While automation increased efficiency and lowered production costs, it led to job losses, especially in lower-skill positions. Workers had to either retrain or move into new industries.

The Rise of Computers and Software (Late 20th Century)

Displacement: The rise of personal computers and software applications, particularly in offices, significantly reduced the need for manual clerical work.
Example: Typists, bookkeepers, and telephone switchboard operators were replaced by automated systems, spreadsheets, and word processing software.
Effect: Many clerical jobs were rendered obsolete, though new opportunities arose in IT, programming, and digital services.

The Digital Revolution and the Internet (1990s-Present)

Displacement: The internet and digital technologies disrupted many traditional industries.
Example: In retail, the rise of e-commerce platforms like Amazon led to the closure of brick-and-mortar stores, displacing retail workers. Similarly, digital photography led to the decline of traditional film photography, displacing workers in film development and printing.
Effect: Many jobs in traditional media (e.g., print journalism, video rental) and customer service were displaced, but new job categories emerged in digital marketing, e-commerce, web development, and cybersecurity.

So is the emergence of AI different than any of those previous disruptive technologies? The answer unfortunately is yes. That doesn't mean all is lost. It just means that we can't use the past to predict the future, and we can't take anything for granted.

The Sea Change that is AI

The following differences set AI apart from everything that has come before:

AI has the potential to displace not only manual and routine physical labor but also knowledge-based and creative jobs. Customer service, legal work, and even healthcare are now being automated. This shift is much more extensive because it includes fields that require higher cognitive abilities, creative thinking, or decision-making, areas once considered safe from automation.
AI's capabilities are advancing at an unprecedented pace. In some sectors, entire job categories could be disrupted in a matter of years or even months, especially as AI systems become more sophisticated and widely adopted. This creates a sense of urgency for workers to retrain or transition to new roles, potentially leading to more immediate and larger-scale dislocations than seen in previous technological shifts.
AI has the potential to not only displace jobs within industries but also entirely transform or even eliminate entire sectors. For example, autonomous vehicles could render traditional driving professions (truck drivers, delivery drivers) largely obsolete, and AI-driven financial tools could replace human financial analysts. In contrast, earlier technologies usually displaced jobs but did not entirely wipe out industries in the same way. This has profound implications for the future structure of the workforce and the economy.
AI has the potential to create significant job polarization, where the demand for high-skill, high-paying jobs (such as in AI development, data science, and cybersecurity) rises, while the demand for low-skill, low-paying jobs (such as in manual labor or customer service) decreases. This could exacerbate income inequality and widen the gap between those with advanced skills and those without. The skill gaps are especially challenging because retraining or reskilling can be more complex due to the fast-evolving nature of AI technologies and their broad application across industries.
It’s much harder to predict the precise impact AI will have on job markets, both in the short and long term. AI's potential to "learn" and adapt to new tasks, its ability to enter almost any field, and its capacity to create new forms of work (gig economy jobs powered by AI platforms, for instance) complicates predictions. AI could evolve in unexpected ways, potentially creating job categories and business models that we haven’t even conceived of yet, making it challenging for workers, businesses, and governments to plan effectively.
AI raises unique ethical and societal questions that complicate its impact on job displacement. Issues such as algorithmic bias, the fairness of AI in decision-making (e.g., hiring or law enforcement), and the social implications of AI-driven surveillance or control mechanisms are all questions that weren’t as prominent in past technological transitions. These concerns add an extra layer of complexity to how society might address the displacement caused by AI, as it requires careful consideration of not just economic impacts but also ethical and moral ramifications.
The universal nature of AI’s potential to displace jobs means that policy responses will need to be much broader. There may be a need for universal basic income (UBI) experiments, massive investments in retraining programs, or new social contracts to address the societal impacts of AI. This kind of widespread policy coordination is unprecedented in the history of technological change.

Surviving the AI Job Displacement Apocalypse

There is an old adage that goes: history repeats itself. That can be comforting or cautionary, as the context requires. But we might be finding that not only may history not repeat itself, but it may not even rhyme.

The technologies that have become part of our everyday lives are unprecedented in human history. And one of those technologies might put many of us out of work. Survival depends on paying attention, taking nothing for granted, and pivoting faster than the technology can displace us. Let's keep our heads, keep our humanity and figure this out together.

Spiller Law is an advisor to startup businesses, entertainment and media companies, and artists. Feel free to schedule a free consultation.

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The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal advice or opinion. Readers are advised to consult with their legal counsel for specific advice.